"At the start of the Champions League a Camp Nou meeting between Barcelona and Chelsea – semi-final second leg – would have been an easy home win prediction for most pundits. After all, the holders have been playing an exquisite game for over eighteen months and on course for yet another final – according to most experts. Indeed, everyone assuming Pep Guardiola’s squad had more than enough in their tank to see off all comers this season. But the home defeat to Real Madrid on Saturday evening was the first La Liga loss by the Catalan club in eight meetings in the El Clasico – an untimely milestone.
Then the 1-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge in the first leg last week was also a marker, but not as significant given Barcelona lost twelve months ago to Arsenal at the Etihad in the round of last 16. However all those three results give Chelsea manager Roberto di Matteo more than just a hope of upsetting the pre-tournament expectations on Tuesday night.
Clearly the manager has regained the confidence of the senior players, who one by one have delivered in Champions League so far for Chelsea - starting with the heroic recovery against Napoli in the second leg in the previous round. On that night the Blues were immense and have not looked back since with Didier Drogba regaining the form that secured another appearance for his country in the African Cup of Nations final in January. Although excessive with the histrionics last Wednesday in London the big striker showed he can still deliver on the major occasions. None more important than the goal against Barcelona following a pass from Ramires that he slammed into the back of the net on the stroke of half time.
In that kind of form the big Ivorian forward may prove too much even for the physical Javier Mascherano – over whom he holds six inch height advantage. Especially if high crosses rain in from Ivanovic and Ashley Cole.
But Barcelona’s views on that same match at the Bridge will no doubt have a touch of what might have been, given that both Busquets and Fabregas missed clear cut chances. All compounded by two other strikes on woodwork. The first from Sanchez in the 9th minute, when he hit the cross bar, and then deep into injury time when Pedro’s shot spared Petr Cech’s blushes by hitting the upright. Not forgetting that Ashley Cole also cleared another Farbregas dink into an empty goal-mouth - right off the line.
Guardiola knows though it is unlikely that such misses will happen again given the team's track record. Or at least Barcelona will be hoping it won't happen again at the hallowed sanctuary that is Camp Nou.
Then again at this stage of the Champions League it is all about luck and Chelsea rode theirs in the first leg – earning a deserved win with an impressive defensive showing. The question is whether the same tactic will prove enough to survive ninety minutes in Catalunya.
Clearly the quick counter attack is the staple diet of the last four teams left in the competition. Best highlighted by Frank Lampard cross field pass - after Chelsea Meireles rumbled the ball just inside the halfway line – that found Ramires racing free down the left flank. As is customary when Barca move forward neither Dani Alves or Carles Puyol were at home , so by the time the ball reached the six yard box, Drogba was more or less unmarked. By repeating the same formula in the return leg, Chelsea may have a chance to break away and score. But if not, they may need to rely on a more direct style and just service Drogba with long balls to chase down on the night.
Last year that direct style from Arsenal nearly unravelled Barcelona in their return leg and Di Matteo may have taken notice.
It might also make the case for choosing Fernando Torres as the support for Drogba - given his energy chasing down the Barcelona build up play, coming from Puyol. Busquets, Xavi and Iniesta. Failing that, a set piece might opens a door or two for Chelsea and that would be something Di Matteo will have thought about when assessing his options. Having brought a sense of pragmatism to Stamford Bridge, the Chelsea manager will leave no stone unturned before he names the team on Tuesday night.
Memories of some famous European nights with Liverpool remind me of times in training when we could have spent more time preparing set pieces and corners. But given the level of success – and the inherent talent in the team - it was probably just a quick series of kicks at the end of training at Melwood in the end. Such a carefree attitude seems a little similar at this Barcelona team. Given their talent from dead ball situations though with Xavi, Dani Alves and Messi, free kicks are not viewed with the same priority perhaps as other teams.
Also Barcelona are a team that create so many chances, set pieces must seem boring and irrelevant to them. Yet that maybe the difference in the two teams in the second leg if Chelsea get chances on the edge of the box.
The formbook suggests that Barcelona are unlikely to miss as many chances second time around. In contrast Chelsea need to match the exact same formula from last week to protect their one goal advantage. In other words, another perfect game filled with tireless running, chasing and harrying on a pitch that is a couple of metres longer. But sometimes feels double in size when Barca start their tick tack passing game.
Unfortunately for the visitors, it maybe the perfect number 10, Lionel Messi, who proves the difference on the night and gets Barcelona to a consecutive Champions League final come May 19th. After all, no one has yet figured out how to mark the genial Argentinian out of a game. Just one moment of magic from him early doors and the Chelsea legs may just start feeling their miles.
Regardless, it will be intriguing to watch and you have to favour a home win.”
©JimBeglin
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