Paul Nicholls believes it will be "even stevens" when Kauto Star and Long Run clash in the Betfred Gold Cup at Cheltenham on March 16.
The champion trainer has remarkably brought Kauto Star back to peak form this season during which he has beaten the defending Cheltenham champion in the Betfair Chase and William Hill King George VI Chase.
However he is under no illusion about the size of the task he faces next month, telling the Racing UK podcast: "If Kauto was four years younger, then he would be favourite, but I suppose people think Long Run will be better suited to Cheltenham and he is the champion after all.
"Without a doubt, Kauto is better than last season, and it is difficult to know whether Long Run has improved since last year, so it should bring them closer together.
"Not having Denman in the race will also help, as he would harry and pressurise him at the top of the hill. The quicker they go the better early on, but then it's just a case of getting a breather in, and Kauto never had that chance with Denman up his backside.
"Last year, he wasn't quite finishing, but if we can get him a bit fitter, he should finish better up the hill.
"He's cantered pretty much every day since the King George; we haven't been too hard on him but now's the time to up a gear. We've got five weeks to really tune him up and got some hard graft to do to get his fitness levels up, along with a bit of schooling."
Looking back to Kauto Star's victories over Long Run at Haydock and Kempton, Nicholls added: "It took him a while to get over his races last year. These two races were like he was when he was at his very best. He was so fresh the next day. He's a confidence horse and there's no sign of aging.
"Going into the King George, we thought Long Run would improve for his first run and thought he was the one to beat.
"But I was astounded at how Kauto had improved and looked before Kempton. I think it's even stevens between them now."
